:Product: 20000319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 079 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGIONS 8906 (S17W74) AND
8910 (N12W23) PRODUCED THE BRUNT OF THE DAY'S ACTIVITY. 8906 HAD AN
M3/1N TENFLARE AT 18/2357Z, AND AN M1/1F TENFLARE AT 1756Z, AS WELL
AS OTHER SMALLER EVENTS. THE REGION IS NEARING WEST LIMB, BUT
CLEARLY REMAINS POTENT. REGION 8910 PRODUCED AN M2/2N AT 18/2333Z,
AND OTHER LESSER-SIZED EVENTS. THIS REGION IS THE MOST OMINOUS ON
THE VISIBLE DISK, MEASURING NEARLY 600 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT
AREA, 48 SPOTS, AND A BETA-GAMMA DELTA MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY. OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY OCCURRING WERE: A C4/1F FLARE WITH TYPE II AT
18/2154Z FROM REGION 8909 (S29E25), AN UNOBSERVED C5 X-RAY EVENT
WITH TYPE II AT 0202Z, AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A 29 DEGREE-LONG
FILAMENT CENTERED NEAR S69W04 IN THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. TWO NEW
REGIONS, 8918 (N32W14) AND 8919 (S22E58) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE. REGIONS 8906 AND 8910 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE
OCCASIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF X-CLASS
ACTIVITY SHOULD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN REGION 8910.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 MAR-22 MAR
CLASS M    70/70/50
CLASS X    15/15/10
PROTON     15/15/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 MAR 208
PREDICTED   20 MAR-22 MAR  215/220/230
90 DAY MEAN        19 MAR 174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR  005/008-010/008-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 MAR-22 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01