:Product: 20000322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 082 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8910 (N13W61) PRODUCED
AN X1/2N EVENT  AT 1848Z. THE ACTIVITY INCLUDED TYPES II AND IV
SWEEP, AND A BURST OF 500 SFU AT 10 CM. THE REGION HAD GENERATED AN
M1/1N FLARE EARLIER, AT 0118Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS BEGINNING TO HAMPER
ANALYSIS OF 8910, BUT DATA SUGGEST IT STILL TO BE LARGE AND
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. REGIONS 8917 (N20W35) AND 8918 (N32W53), BOTH
NEAR REGION 8910, GENERATED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8923
(S27E43) WAS ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED
INCREASED FROM 400 TO 600 KM/S DURING THE DAY, PRESUMABLY RELATED TO
A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH-SPEED
STREAM EFFECTS SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 MAR-25 MAR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 MAR 234
PREDICTED   23 MAR-25 MAR  240/240/245
90 DAY MEAN        22 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAR  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR  010/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR  015/015-015/015-015/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 MAR-25 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/50
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/60/60
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01