:Product: 20000323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 083 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO TWO M-CLASS EVENTS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY
FLARE AT 23/0030UT AND THE SECOND WAS AN M2/SF FROM REGION 8910 AT
23/1214UT. REGION 8910 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE REGION AND CAN
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C AND POSSIBLE M-CLASS
EVENTS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8913 (S06W50), 8915
(N23W14), AND 8917 (N19W47) ALL PRODUCED C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE
PERIOD. REGIONS 8916 (N13E01), 8918 (N13W66), AND 8921 (S15E37) WERE
ALSO ACTIVE, PRODUCING OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE REPORTING
PERIOD. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED; 8924 (N13E70), 8925
(S17E76), 8926 (S10W18), AND 8927 (N18E01).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED
REMAINED HIGH, ALTHOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE DURING THE PERIOD,
FROM 600 TO 500 KM/S. PRESUMABLY RELATED TO A WELL POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE SECOND DAY OF THE
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 MAR-26 MAR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 MAR 224
PREDICTED   24 MAR-26 MAR  230/240/245
90 DAY MEAN        23 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAR  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAR-26 MAR  015/025-020/030-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 MAR-26 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/60/50
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/70/60
MINOR STORM           20/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01