:Product: 20000327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 087 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 8926 (S09W72)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 27/0518Z.  OTHER NUMEROUS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO OBSERVED FROM REGION 8926.
DECAY WAS NOTED IN REGION 8926; HOWEVER, SLIGHT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED
IN REGIONS 8924 (N10E12) AND 8925 (S18E20).  NEW REGIONS 8933
(N15E33), AND 8934 (N21E53) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE MINOR
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  FURTHER ANALYSIS INDICATES NO
STRONG EARTH-DIRECTED CME IN PROGRESS FROM THE 25 MARCH EVENT.  ANY
SIGNIFICANT GEOEFFECTIVE CONDITIONS FROM THE EVENT ON 25 MARCH ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 MAR-30 MAR
CLASS M    50/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 MAR 205
PREDICTED   28 MAR-30 MAR  205/200/195
90 DAY MEAN        27 MAR 177
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAR  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAR  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAR-30 MAR  010/015-008/012-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 MAR-30 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01