:Product: 20000402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 093 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A LONG DURATION C6/SF FROM REGION 8936
(S15E22) FROM 02/1658-1831Z. REGION 8933 (N17W43) ALSO PRODUCED
SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THAT TIME. DISK REGIONS WERE PREDOMINANTLY
STABLE OR DECAYING. ACTIVE SURGING WAS VISIBLE NEAR SE17 WHERE OLD
REGION 8906 IS DUE TO RETURN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. CURRENT DISK REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS. OLD REGION 8906, THAT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB, PRODUCED 8 M-CLASS EVENTS LAST ROTATION BUT WAS
DECAYING SLOWLY DURING ITS WESTERN HEMISPHERE TRANSIT. DEPENDING
UPON ITS RATE OF DISSOLUTION DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS, THIS AREA
COULD ELEVATE ACTIVITY LEVELS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY WAS SLIGHTLY OVER NOMINAL AT 450-475 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE FOR 03-04 APR. QUIET
TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 05 APR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 APR-05 APR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 APR 219
PREDICTED   03 APR-05 APR  220/225/220
90 DAY MEAN        02 APR 183
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 APR  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 APR  014/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 APR-05 APR  012/015-010/015-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 APR-05 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01