:Product: 20000403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 094 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. SEVERAL SMALL  C-CLASS
SUBFLARES OCCURRED. MOST DISK REGIONS EXHIBITED DECAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 8933 (N18W57) THAT GREW AT A MODERATE PACE. PLAGE WAS
BRIGHT IN THIS REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. OLD REGION 8906 WHICH
PRODUCED 8 M-CLASS EVENTS LAST ROTATION BEGAN TO APPEAR AT THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB. NO SPOTS WERE VISIBLE BUT A LARGE DIFFUSE PLAGE
FIELD BECAME EVIDENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8933 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE FREQUENT SMALL C-CLASS
EVENTS. SHOULD GROWTH CONTINUE HERE, A FILAMENT JUST TO THE EAST OF
THIS REGION MAY ERUPT WITH A LONG DURATION C-CLASS EVENT AND MASS
EJECTION. OTHER REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE CAPABLE OF ONLY ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE FLARE POTENTIAL OF
RETURNING REGION 8906 AT THIS TIME. THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FLARES
FROM THIS AREA ARGUES FOR A REDUCED POTENTIAL FROM LAST ROTATION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BECAME ELEVATED BUT DID NOT REACH HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS MAY OCCUR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 APR-06 APR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 APR 215
PREDICTED   04 APR-06 APR  218/215/210
90 DAY MEAN        03 APR 184
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR  014/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR  008/012-010/015-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 APR-06 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/10
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/15
MINOR STORM           10/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01