:Product: 20000405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 096 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, ONLY C-CLASS FLARES WERE
OBSERVED.  THERE ARE 14 SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE DISK, MOST
APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING.  REGION 8933 (N18W84)  REMAINS
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX AS IT BEGINS ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT.  SOHO
SPACECRAFT CORONAL IMAGES INDICATE THAT A CME, WHICH MAY BE
EARTH-DIRECTED, WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE C9/2F FLARE FROM THIS REGION
ON 4 APRIL.  REGION 8948 (S15E56) APPEARS TO BE A DAO SPOT GROUP
WITH AN EAST-WEST NEUTRAL LINE.  REGIONS 8949 (S18E76) AND 8950
(N18W64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  THE PROTON
EVENT WHICH STARTED AT 04/2055T PEAKED AT 55 PFU AT 05/0930UT AND
CONTINUES IN PROGRESS (CURRENT FLUX IS 20 PFU AT >10MEV).  THE
ASSOCIATED PCA BEGAN AT 05/0653UT, REACHED MAXIMUM OF 2.2 DB AT
05/0950UT AND ENDED AT 05/1807UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 08 APRIL WHEN THE FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM
THE CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE C9/2F FLARE AT 04/1541UT.  THE SATELLITE
PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 APR-08 APR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 APR 194
PREDICTED   06 APR-08 APR  190/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        05 APR 185
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR  023/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR  008/010-008/010-025/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 APR-08 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/06
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/11