:Product: 20000407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 098 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  ONLY SMALL C FLARES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF REGION 8948 (S14E28) ADDING
COMPLEXITY TO THIS REGION (A DELTA MAG CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED).  TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8951 (N11E74) AND
8952 (S24E49).  REGION 8951 MAY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
REGION 8910.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8948 AND REGIONS
RETURNING TO THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY RANGED FROM SEVERE STORM TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT SEVERE LEVELS (K=8) AT THE START OF THE
DAY.  ACTIVITY DECREASED TO ACTIVE LEVELS BY MID DAY AND THE FIELD
IS CURRENTLY AT UNSETTLED LEVELS.  THE SOLAR WIND, AS OBSERVED BY
THE ACE SPACECRAFT, SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING
THIS STORM HAD PASSED THE SPACECRAFT BY 0800UT.  THE SOLAR WIND
SPEED STILL REMAINS ELEVATED AT 600KM/S.  A MINOR FORBUSH DECREASE
IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED BY THE THULE NEUTRON MONITOR.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 APR-10 APR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 APR 175
PREDICTED   08 APR-10 APR  180/185/190
90 DAY MEAN        07 APR 185
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR  034/056
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR  051/063
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR  010/030-008/015-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 APR-10 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           30/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01