:Product: 20000408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 099 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15E14)
PRODUCED AN M2/1B FLARE AT 0240Z AND AN M1/1N AT 2046Z. THIS REGION
HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND HAS A COMPLICATED MAGNETIC STRUCTURE
INCLUDING A SMALL DELTA SPOT. NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S OBSERVED FLARE
ACTIVITY CAME FROM THIS GROUP. REGION 8951 (N13E64) ROTATED MORE
FULLY INTO VIEW AS A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8949 (S19E43)
EXHIBITED GROWTH BUT WAS STABLE. A CME WAS OBSERVED TO ENTER THE
LASCO C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT 1554Z TODAY: THE MATERIAL WAS CONSTRAINED
TO A RELATIVELY SMALL ANGLE OFF THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, AND DISK
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE SOURCE REGION WAS JUST BEHIND WEST
LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8948 SHOWS FAIR-GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES AND WAS
QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS
OCCURRED FROM 0600-1200Z. SOLAR WIND SPEED REMAINS ELEVATED (500-550
KM/S), BUT THE DENSITY IS LOW AND THE MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY IS
WEAK.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 APR-11 APR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 APR 182
PREDICTED   09 APR-11 APR  180/180/175
90 DAY MEAN        08 APR 186
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR  034/050
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR  012/010-010/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 APR-11 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05