:Product: 20000414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 105 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8948
(S15W63) PRODUCED A LONG-DURATION C1 PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT
13/2130Z ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE AND A
PARTIAL-HALO CME. THIS REGION, WHICH REMAINED IN A STATE OF GRADUAL
DECAY, ALSO PRODUCED A C7/1F FLARE AT 14/0816Z. REGIONS 8955
(S22E33) AND 8960 (N19W31) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD.
THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A FAIR BUT DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8948.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS ON 16 APRIL IN RESPONSE
TO THE PARTIAL-HALO CME MENTIONED ABOVE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS
SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
CLASS M    30/30/25
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 APR 165
PREDICTED   15 APR-17 APR  165/160/160
90 DAY MEAN        14 APR 184
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 APR  003/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 APR  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 APR-17 APR  012/012-018/020-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/40/30
MINOR STORM           10/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/45/35
MINOR STORM           20/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05