:Product: 20000422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 113 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
FROM A VARIETY OF ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING 8955 (S21W71), 8963
(N17W44), 8967 (N22E23), 8970 (S15E56), 8971 (N17E54), AND 8972
(N33W10). REGION 8963, A SMALL SLOWLY DECAYING SUNSPOT GROUP, WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE. REGION 8970 IS THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE
DISK BUT APPEARS MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE. NEW REGION 8973 (N20W12)
EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. REGIONS 8963,
8970, 8971, AND 8972 ARE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF ENERGETIC
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 APR-25 APR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    02/02/02
PROTON     02/02/02
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 APR 202
PREDICTED   23 APR-25 APR  210/215/220
90 DAY MEAN        22 APR 184
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 APR  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 APR  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 APR-25 APR  005/005-005/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 APR-25 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01