:Product: 20000423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 114 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8971 (N18E41) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE, A C7/1N AT 22/2354UT. THIS REGION IS GROWING IN
SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8970 (S15E43) IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK AND HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL SMALL SUBFLARES. REGIONS 8966 (S13W06), 8967 (N22E09), AND
8972 (N34W21) ALSO GENERATED SMALL FLARES. NEW REGIONS 8974 (S21W36)
AND 8975 (S25E50) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8970, 8971, AND 8972 ARE THE MOST PROBABLE
SOURCES OF ACTIVITY.  A MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8970 OR
8971.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 APR-26 APR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    02/02/02
PROTON     02/02/02
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 APR 206
PREDICTED   24 APR-26 APR  215/220/220
90 DAY MEAN        23 APR 185
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 APR  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 APR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 APR-26 APR  010/012-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 APR-26 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05