:Product: 20000424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 115 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED, PRIMARILY FROM REGIONS 8971 (N18E28) AND 8972 (N34W34).
REGION 8971 IS A LARGE, COMPLEX GROUP, AND 8972 HAS A DEGREE OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS WELL. REGION 8970 (S15E30), THE LARGEST ON
THE DISK AT OVER 1000 MILLIONTHS, HAS BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8970, 8971, AND 8972 ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. A TRANSIENT
WAS SEEN TO PASS THE ACE SPACECRAFT AROUND 0400Z, BRINGING WITH IT
ENHANCED SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
OCCURRED SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THEN  SUBSIDING TO MORE NORMAL (BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED) LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 25 APRIL, AND STRICTLY
UNSETTLED THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 APR-27 APR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 APR 206
PREDICTED   25 APR-27 APR  210/210/215
90 DAY MEAN        24 APR 186
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 APR  004/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 APR  015/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 APR-27 APR  015/018-010/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 APR-27 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01