:Product: 20000428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 119 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 APR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY TWO C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD, THE LARGEST BEING A C5/1N WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (VELOCITY - 500 KM/S) AT 28/1851UT,
FROM REGION 8967 (N19W60). THREE NEW REGION WERE NUMBERED TODAY:
8976 (S11E03), 8977 (S14W04), AND 8978 (N19E04). ALL THREE NEW
REGIONS SHOWED SIGNS OF ACTIVITY AND FAIRLY STEADY GROWTH DURING THE
DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 APR-01 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 APR 183
PREDICTED   29 APR-01 MAY  180/175/175
90 DAY MEAN        28 APR 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 APR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 APR  012/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 APR-01 MAY  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 APR-01 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01