:Product: 20000501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 122 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M1 FLARE
FROM REGION 8971 (N20W61). ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT WAS OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATORIES, THE FLARE LOCATION WAS
VERIFIED BY EIT AND SXT INSTRUMENTS. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS NOTED
DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8981
(S23E30).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ACTIVE
PERIODS OCCURRING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, 01/15-1800UT AND
01/18-2100UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD, DUE TO A POSSIBLY EARTH-DIRECTED
CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT OCCURRED ON 30 APRIL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 MAY-04 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 MAY 158
PREDICTED   02 MAY-04 MAY  160/155/155
90 DAY MEAN        01 MAY 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR  010/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY  010/012-015/020-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 MAY-04 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/40/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01