:Product: 20000502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 123 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 8971 (N19W74)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 02/1451Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 250 SFU
TENFLARE.  OTHERWISE, ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
DURING THE PERIOD.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 8970 (S13W78) OR 8971.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THE SOLAR WIND WAS OBSERVED WHEN A TRANSIENT PASSED THE ACE
SPACECRAFT AT APRROXIMATELY 02/1040Z.  THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED FROM AROUND 600 TO MOMENTARILY OVER 900 KM/SEC.  ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRED SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.  THE SOLAR WIND SPEED SLOWLY
SUBSIDED AND LEVELED OFF AROUND 600 KM/SEC DURING THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD; THEN BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 MAY-05 MAY
CLASS M    35/30/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 MAY 153
PREDICTED   03 MAY-05 MAY  150/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        02 MAY 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY  015/020-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 MAY-05 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/25
MINOR STORM           25/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/40/35
MINOR STORM           30/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01