:Product: 20000503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 124 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 03/0043Z.  SOME MODERATE
GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8981 (S22E03) AS THE REGION GREW FROM
5 TO 10 SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY.  AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE OCCURRED ON
THE SOUTHWEST LIMB FROM REGION 8970 (S14W92) AT APPROXIMATELY
03/0030Z.  NEW REGION 8982 (S20E19) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8970 OR 8971
(N18W85) AS EACH REGION PASSES OVER THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR ONE PERIOD FROM
03/1500-1800Z.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 MAY-06 MAY
CLASS M    30/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 MAY 137
PREDICTED   04 MAY-06 MAY  135/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        03 MAY 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY  013/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY  010/012-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 MAY-06 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/40
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01