:Product: 20000506RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 May 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 127 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 MAY 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION B9 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED FROM 06/0945-1133Z. COINCIDENT IN TIME WITH THIS EVENT WAS A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N26E39. A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHEAST LIMB FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. DISK REGIONS WERE SMALL AND EXHIBITED LITTLE EVOLUTION. A PROMINENCE NEAR SW34 SLOWLY ELEVATED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF ERUPTING. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ONLY ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC PROTON FLUXES WERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE BACKGROUND BUT FAR BELOW EVENT LEVEL. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NO RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 MAY-09 MAY CLASS M 05/05/05 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 06 MAY 127 PREDICTED 07 MAY-09 MAY 127/130/133 90 DAY MEAN 06 MAY 188 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY 012/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY 010/010-010/010-007/005 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 MAY-09 MAY A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01