:Product: 20000507RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 May 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 128 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 MAY 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS AND SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED. SEVERAL SMALL REGIONS EMERGED. THE DISK REGIONS WERE ALSO SMALL AND EXHIBITED MINOR EVOLUTION. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A VERY LOW TO LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CURRENT REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS. REGIONS NEARING THE EAST LIMB MAY RAISE C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. BRIEF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED IN THE 07/0300-0600Z PERIOD. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY DECLINED TO BELOW 400 KM/S NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC (GT 10 MEV) PROTON FLUXES REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE BACKGROUND DURING THE PERIOD BUT WERE DECLINING. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE. NO RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 MAY-10 MAY CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 07 MAY 131 PREDICTED 08 MAY-10 MAY 133/136/138 90 DAY MEAN 07 MAY 187 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY 007/010-007/008-007/008 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 MAY-10 MAY A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01