:Product: 20000508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 129 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8990 (N13E49) BEGAN
TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL
LOW TO MID LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. A NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST
LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8991 (N16E70). OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS, THERE WERE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT FILAMENT ERUPTIONS FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. THESE FILAMENTS WERE LARGE AND
DENSE. A PARTIAL HALO WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH SPANNING
FROM SE60-NW10 AT AROUND 08/0700Z. ANOTHER MASS EJECTION, THAT MAY
ALSO BE A PARTIAL HALO EVENT, BECAME VISIBLE AROUND 08/1800Z IN
ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8990 SHOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY
OF C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN M-CLASS EVENT
FROM EITHER REGION 8990 OR 8991.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR 09-10 MAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF 11
MAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON 11
MAY FROM THE ERUPTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 12-13 MAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 MAY-11 MAY
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 MAY 137
PREDICTED   09 MAY-11 MAY  142/145/147
90 DAY MEAN        08 MAY 187
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY  005/008-005/008-018/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 MAY-11 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/40
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/02/20