:Product: 20000509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 130 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8989 (N17E13) ENTERED A
GROWTH PHASE DURING THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPED MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS
THAT MAY INCLUDE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION. THIS REGION PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C9/SN FLARE AT 09/1740Z.
SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED FROM OTHER SMALL
REGIONS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ANOTHER LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
BECAME VISIBLE IN THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA. THIS SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM YET ANOTHER
FILAMENT ERUPTION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. A
MODERATE SIZE H TYPE SPOT ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND WAS NUMBERED AS
REGION 8992 (N09E73).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8989 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL
M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH HERE COULD RESULT IN THE
DISSOLUTION OF SEVERAL NEARBY FILAMENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL MIDDAY ON 11 MAY WHEN A FILAMENT
ERUPTION RELATED STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FROM THAT TIME THROUGH 13 MAY.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DISTURBANCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 MAY-12 MAY
CLASS M    45/45/45
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 MAY 150
PREDICTED   10 MAY-12 MAY  158/162/165
90 DAY MEAN        09 MAY 186
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY  007/008-018/015-030/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 MAY-12 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/25/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/25
MINOR STORM           05/30/40
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/15