:Product: 20000511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 132 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 X-RAY FLARE.  THERE WERE ALSO A NUMBER OF
SMALLER C-CLASS X-RAY AND OPTICAL SF FLARES.  NEW REGIONS 8995
(S19E00), 8996 (S18E77), AND 8997 (S14E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 8989 (N17W14), 8990 (N14E05), 8993 (S23W19)
ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK M FLARES. NEW REGION 8996 ALSO
BEARS WATCHING.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THE 8 MAY FILAMENT
ERUPTION EARLY ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS STILL NOT BEEN ANY
STRONG INDICATION OF ITS APPROACH IN THE ACE SATELLITE DATA. EFFECTS
OF A SMALL RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED LATE 12 TO EARLY 13
MAY.  YESTERDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION AND LONG DURATION FLARE PRODUCED
A PARTIAL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO.  AN ASSOCIATED SHOCK IS
EXPECTED LATE 13 OR EARLY 14 MAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAY 178
PREDICTED   12 MAY-14 MAY  190/195/200
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAY 186
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05