:Product: 20000514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 135 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8993 (S23W58) WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE GROUP TODAY, PRODUCING AN M1/SF AT 0805Z, AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL, UPPER-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. THE REGION SHOWED SOME
GROWTH IN THE TRAILING PART OF THE REGION. REGION 8996 (S21E44) IS
THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK WITH 1140 MILLIONTHS AREA, AND WAS
ABLE TO MUSTER A COUPLE UPPER-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8998
(S13E54) SHOWED SOME GROWTH TODAY, AND ALSO PRODUCED A C-CLASS
EVENT. NEW REGION 9002 (N18E76) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A LARGE,
H-TYPE SUNSPOT: THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE REGION MAY BECOME
APPARENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LONG DURATION C-CLASS EVENT
OCCURRED FROM 13/2301 TO 14/0020Z. THIS EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WHICH BECAME VISIBLE IN THE LASCO C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT
0026Z. THE MASS EJECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTHWARD DIRECTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH REGIONS 8993 AND 8996 BEING
THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS FLARES, ALTHOUGH 8989 (N16W54)
AND 8998 COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR
FLARE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. QUIET
TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DOMINATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED ACTIVITY (ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM) WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN
0000-0300Z. THERE WAS NO CLEAR-CUT SOLAR WIND SIGNATURE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SUBSTORM, OTHER THAN TWO HOURS OF MODERATELY ENHANCED
NEGATIVE BZ FROM 0000-0200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 MAY 233
PREDICTED   15 MAY-17 MAY  235/235/240
90 DAY MEAN        14 MAY 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  015/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  008/010-010/012-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05