:Product: 20000526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 147 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED IN A VARIETY OF REGIONS. REGION 9002 (N20W79) WAS THE MOST
ACTIVE AREA ON THE VISIBLE DISK.  NEW REGIONS 9018 (S20W11) AND 9019
(S34W38) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.  THE
MOST DISTURBED PERIODS OCCURRED FROM 26/06-12UT. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. INCREASED ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WELL POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 MAY-29 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 MAY 168
PREDICTED   27 MAY-29 MAY  160/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        26 MAY 196
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 MAY  023/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAY  020/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAY-29 MAY  010/012-010/015-010/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 MAY-29 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05