:Product: 20000527RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 148 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED.  THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE REGIONS 9017 (S13E42)
AND 9018 (S21W24).  BOTH GROUPS HAVE GROWN BUT NEITHER HAS PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW REGION 9020 (N03E06) EMERGED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE REMAINS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
THIRD DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 MAY-30 MAY
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 MAY 162
PREDICTED   28 MAY-30 MAY  155/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        27 MAY 195
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAY  019/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAY-30 MAY  010/015-012/025-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 MAY-30 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05