:Product: 20000529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 150 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW FLARES OCCURRED
AND ALL WERE BELOW C-LEVEL. REGION 9017 (S13E16) REMAINS THE MOST
COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. REGIONS 9023 (S03W12) AND
9024 (S14E55) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9017 IS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF FLARE
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS
MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE RELATED
ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 MAY-01 JUN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 MAY 149
PREDICTED   30 MAY-01 JUN  145/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        29 MAY 193
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAY  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAY  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAY-01 JUN  020/018-015/015-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 MAY-01 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01