:Product: 20000531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 152 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 MAY 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. INTERMITTENT C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C4 AT 1359Z. THE SOURCE OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE BEHIND THE EAST LIMB, WHERE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE ENHANCED X-RAY AND WHITE LIGHT EMISSION CONCURRENT WITH THE
X-RAY BURSTS. THE DISK REGIONS HAVE BEEN STABLE. ONE NEW REGION,
9025 (N15W64), EMERGED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW REGION ON THE NE LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHORT-LIVED
SUBSTORM BROUGHT MINOR STORM CONDITIONS TO MID-LATITUDES FROM
0300-0600Z. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED CONTINUES TO FALL, NOW JUST ABOVE
500 KM/S. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS
HIGH AGAIN TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SUBSTORMS MAY
OCCUR IN LOCAL MIDNIGHT SECTORS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 JUN-03 JUN
CLASS M    10/20/30
CLASS X    01/05/05
PROTON     01/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 MAY 154
PREDICTED   01 JUN-03 JUN  160/165/170
90 DAY MEAN        31 MAY 192
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY  012/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN  010/012-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 JUN-03 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01