:Product: 20000603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 155 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N19E54) PRODUCED
AN M6/2B FLARE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 310 SFU TENFLARE AT 03/1924UT.
THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED AN M2/1F AT 03/0849UT. REGION 9026 WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS IS A FAIRLY LARGE (940 MILLIONTHS) AND COMPLEX REGION
(FKO BETA-GAMMA). THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WERE STABLE AND
QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. M AND POSSIBLY X-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
REGION 8026.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH TO MODERATE
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BARRING AN EARTH
DIRECTED CME FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUN 166
PREDICTED   04 JUN-06 JUN  165/175/185
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUN 190
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN  012/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01