:Product: 20000606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 158 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THREE MAJOR EVENTS OCCURRED IN
THE PERIOD, ALL FROM REGION 9026 (N20E10). A X1/2B FLARE WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING 560 SFU TENFLARE OCCURRED AT 06/1339UT. THIS EVENT WAS
FOLLOWED BY AN M7/2N EVENT AT 06/1401UT. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS AN X2/3B FLARE AT 06/1525UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A
TYPE II SWEEP (1189 KM/S), A TYPE IV SWEEP, A 2300 SFU TENFLARE, AND
AN 11-DEGREE LONG FILAMENT ERUPTION. A FULL-HALO CME WAS CREATED BY
THIS EVENT AND WAS MONITORED BY THE LASCO/EIT SPACECRAFT TODAY.
REGION 9026 REMAINS A LARGE REGION (800 MILLIONTHS) WITH AN "F" TYPE
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 9034
(S10E67).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS ALONG WITH ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH A SINGLE
PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT MID-LATITUDES FROM 06/18-2100UT. AFTER
THAT PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD APPEARED TO SETTLE DOWN
APPRECIABLY AND ENDED THE DAY AT QUIET LEVELS. THE D-REGION
ABSORPTION FROM THE INTENSE (X2) X-RAY EVENT EXTENDED TO THE POLAR
CAP REGIONS OF THE DAYLIGHT SIDE OF THE EARTH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING ON THE SECOND DAY OF THE
PERIOD, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL-HALO CME, AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ON THE THIRD DAY TO MAJOR
STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    25/25/25
PROTON     25/25/25
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JUN 186
PREDICTED   07 JUN-09 JUN  185/195/210
90 DAY MEAN        06 JUN 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN  022/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN  018/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN  015/018-030/035-050/075
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/50/40
MINOR STORM           15/25/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/20/25
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/50/40
MINOR STORM           25/30/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/20/25