:Product: 20000607RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 159 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 9026 (N20W03) PRODUCED
AN X1/3B EVENT AT 07/1553Z.  THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 200 SFU
TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 826 KM/S, AND A WEAK TYPE
IV SWEEP.  LASCO/EIT IMAGERY ALSO OBSERVED A FAINT HALO CME WITH
THIS EVENT.  EARLIER, REGION 9031 (S31W77) PRODUCED AN M2/1B EVENT
AT 07/0444Z.  REGION 9026 RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION WITH 27 SPOTS, BUT HAS DECREASED SOME IN OVERALL AREA.
THE REGION AREA DECREASED FROM APPROXIMATELY 800 MILLIONTHS
YESTERDAY TO 590 MILLIONTHS TODAY.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.  REGION 9026 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE
M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO  UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 10
MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT
THRESHOLD AT 07/1335Z AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (07/2100Z FLUX AT 25
PFU).
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE, THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS
OF THE PERIOD TO ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.  THE THIRD DAY MAY
FIRST SEE A SHORT DECLINE IN ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
STORMING LEVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE X1/3B
EVENT TODAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JUN-10 JUN
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    20/15/15
PROTON     15/15/10
PCAF       RED
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JUN 180
PREDICTED   08 JUN-10 JUN  190/200/210
90 DAY MEAN        07 JUN 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUN  013/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUN  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUN-10 JUN  040/045-060/075-025/040
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JUN-10 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/40
MINOR STORM           25/40/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/25/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/30
MINOR STORM           40/60/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    25/30/20