:Product: 20000608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 160 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED.  TWO EVENTS WERE OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION
9026 (N21W17).  ONLY ONE C1/SF EVENT WAS OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH
REGION 9033 (N22E42) AT 08/1811Z.  REGION 9026 SHOWED A MODERATE
INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SPOTS WHILE THE AREA SLIGHTLY DECREASED,
AND THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF THE REGION BECAME BETA GAMMA.
OVERALL, IT APPEARS 9026 IS STARTING TO DECAY.  SIGNIFICANT GROWTH
WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9033.  NEW REGIONS 9035 (S17E15) AND 9036
(S23E73) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.  REGION 9026 AND 9033 ARE EACH CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM.  A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 08/0909Z (77 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS
MAGNETOMETER).  THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 520 TO OVER 800
KM/S AT 08/0841Z.  MINOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED
FOLLOWING THE SHOCK ARRIVAL.  THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED
TO THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE.  THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT PEAKED AT 84 PFU'S AT 08/0940Z AND IS
DECREASING AT THIS TIME.  A MODERATE (7.4 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE
PEAKED NEAR 08/1449Z.  A MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSING WAS OBSERVED ON
GOES-8 (W075) BEGAN AT 08/1510Z AND CONTINUED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY
08/1615Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THE
FIRST DAY.  GEOMAGNETIC STORMING SHOULD START TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.  CONDITIONS BY THE THIRD DAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE PERIOD IF MODERATE EFFECTS ARE OBSERVED FROM THE
X1/3B EVENT ON 7 JUNE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
CLASS M    70/70/60
CLASS X    25/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JUN 175
PREDICTED   09 JUN-11 JUN  185/190/200
90 DAY MEAN        08 JUN 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN  035/055
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN  060/075-025/040-015/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/40/30
MINOR STORM           40/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    25/15/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/50/40
MINOR STORM           60/30/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    30/20/10