:Product: 20000609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 161 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 9026 (N22W29) PRODUCED
A MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AT 08/2324Z AND 09/2048Z.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD IN REGION 9026.
REGION 9033 (N22E29) CONTINUES TO DISPLAY GROWTH AND IS CURRENTLY AN
FKI BETA GAMMA GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 42 SPOTS.  NO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE
M-CLASS EVENTS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF X-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  THE 10 MEV PROTON EVENT
GENERATED FROM THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE ENDED AT 09/0325Z.  THE
SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD FROM 750 TO
550 KM/S.  WHILE MOST AVAILABLE DATA INDICATED THE CHANCE FOR A
STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM, THE BZ MEASURED AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT
STAYED NORTHWARD (POSITIVE) THE ENTIRE PERIOD, NOT ALLOWING FOR A
FAVORABLE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM SITUATION TO OCCUR.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE.  THE EFFECTS OF A FAINT FULL
HALO CME, ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/3B EVENT ON 7 JUNE, IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE FIELD EARLY ON 10 JUNE.  THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLATED PERIODS
OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS TO BE OBSERVED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUN-12 JUN
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUN 169
PREDICTED   10 JUN-12 JUN  175/185/190
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUN 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUN  034/053
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUN  012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUN-12 JUN  020/030-015/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JUN-12 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/30
MINOR STORM           25/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05