:Product: 20000610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 162 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 9026 (N23W39) PRODUCED
AN M5/3B EVENT AT 10/1702Z.  THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 550 SFU
TENFLARE AND A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 700 KM/S.  REGION 9026
HAD BEEN IN A SIGNIFICANT STAGE OF DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY AND WAS AN
EAO BETA GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 8 SPOTS WHEN THE EVENT ABOVE
OCCURRED.  OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING
THE PERIOD.  NEW REGION 9037 (N18E51) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGION 9033 (N22E18) NOW APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM.  AT 09/2350,
DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT DISPLAYED WHAT WAS PRESUMED TO BE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FAINT FULL HALO OBSERVED BACK ON 7 JUNE FROM THE
X1/3B EVENT.  AS A RESULT, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REACHED ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM LEVELS FROM 10/0600Z - 10/1500Z.  THE M-CLASS EVENT
DESCRIBED IN PART IA PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT GREATER THAN 10 AND
100 MEV FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT.  THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV
CROSSED EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 10/1750Z.  THE 100 MEV PEAK FLUX
WAS 1.6 PFU AT 10/1755Z AND DROPPED BELOW THRESHOLD, ENDING AT
10/1830Z.  THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 10/1805Z
AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE OF
ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.  THE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAY
INTENSIFY LATE ON THE THIRD DAY IF AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVES
AT THE EARTH FROM THE M5/3B EVENT EARLIER TODAY.  FURTHER ANALYSIS
OF DATA, NOT YET AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME, IS REQUIRED TO DETERMINE IF
AN EARTH DIRECTED CME IS IN PROGRESS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       RED
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUN 180
PREDICTED   11 JUN-13 JUN  185/190/200
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUN 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUN  004/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUN  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUN-13 JUN  012/012-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05