:Product: 20000611RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 163 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N22E02)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 11/1049Z. REGION 9030 (N12W50) PRODUCED A C7/1F
AT 11/1252Z. REGION 9026 (N21W51) PRODUCED ONLY MINOR ENHANCEMENTS
DURING THE PERIOD BUT NEARBY FILAMENTS EXHIBITED MASS MOTIONS.
SEVERAL REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK OR ROTATED OVER THE LIMB. NONE
APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. RECENT LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA
INDICATE THERE WAS A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOLLOWING THE
M5/3B EVENT AT 10/1702Z FROM REGION 9026.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A
MODERATE LEVEL. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 ARE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS EVENTS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM THESE REGIONS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD GENERALLY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES FROM
11/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS ELEVATED (APPROACHING 600
KM/S AT THE END OF THE PERIOD). BZ WAS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN
AT 10/1805Z REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 46 PFU AT 10/2045Z AND DECAYED
BELOW 10 PFU AT 11/1130Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDED 1000 PFU AT 11/1550Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RANGE PRIMARILY BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE LEVELS ON 12 JUN WITH
ISOLATED MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE. ABOUT MIDDAY ON 13 JUN, A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A RESULT OF THE FULL HALO EVENT
MENTIONED ABOVE. GENERALLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 14 JUN THEN SLOWLY
ABATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SOLAR PROTON EVENT AND PCA
SHOULD REGIONS 9026 OR 9033 PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEO SHOULD REMAIN ENHANCED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUN-14 JUN
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JUN 187
PREDICTED   12 JUN-14 JUN  195/205/210
90 DAY MEAN        11 JUN 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN  016/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN  022/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN  015/015-025/030-018/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JUN-14 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/30/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/20/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           25/40/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/20/15