:Product: 20000613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 165 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL.  THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A LONG DURATION C4/SF AT 13/1350Z FROM
REGION 9041 (N18W35).  GROWTH IN THIS REGION SLOWED BUT SOME RECENT
FLARE ACTIVITY HERE WAS SHARED WITH NEARBY REGION 9033 (N24W22).
FREQUENT SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM REGION 9042 (N19E69).  THIS
REGION SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE E CLASS GROUP.  REGION 9026
(N23W74) CONTINUED A SLOW DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 9026, 9033/9041, AND 9042 APPEAR CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR MAJOR FLARES
FROM THESE REGIONS IS DECREASING SLOWLY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  A SHOCK
PASSED THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 12/2140Z AND CREATED A SUDDEN IMPULSE
OF 28 NT AT THE EARTH AT 12/2210Z.  SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED
FROM 450 KM/S TO OVER 600 KM/S.  HOWEVER, SINCE THAT TIME, VELOCITY
SLOWLY DECREASED AND AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WAS BACK BELOW 450
KM/S.  THIS SHOCK IS BELIEVED RELATED TO THE FULL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION ON 10 JUN.  THE LEVEL OF DISTURBANCE IN THE GEOMAGNETIC
FIELD FOLLOWING THE SHOCK WAS BELOW EXPECTATION.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  VERY
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE. NO RECENT MASS EJECTIONS
APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JUN-16 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 JUN 199
PREDICTED   14 JUN-16 JUN  200/195/192
90 DAY MEAN        13 JUN 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUN  012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUN  016/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUN-16 JUN  010/012-010/012-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 JUN-16 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01