:Product: 20000615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 167 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE
PERIOD WAS FROM REGION 9041 (N19W65). IT PRODUCED AN M1/2N AT
15/1957Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 290 SFU TENFLARE. A WEAK TYPE II RADIO
SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT 15/1519Z AND WAS LIKELY FROM A SUBFAINT FLARE
AND CME FROM REGION 9042 (N20E43). NEW REGION 9047 (S32E30) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS FLARES
WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THESE STORMING
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF A WELL POSITIONED POSITIVE
CORONAL HOLE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS THE CORONAL HOLE ROTATES
OUT OF POSITION THROUGH THE DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUN-18 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUN 202
PREDICTED   16 JUN-18 JUN  200/195/190
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUN 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUN  027/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUN  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUN-18 JUN  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JUN-18 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01