:Product: 20000616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 168 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS FROM REGION 9040 (N18E07) WHICH PRODUCED AN M2/1F AT
15/2343Z. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9048
(N07W13) AND REGION 9049 (S40E65).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL
REGIONS INCLUDING REGION 9033 (N24W67), 9042 (N20E29) AND 9046
(N18E57).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DAY TWO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE DUE TO THE M1/2N FLARE
AND CME OBSERVED AT 15/1957Z FROM REGION 9041 (N20W65 AT FLARE
TIME). QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON DAY
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JUN 198
PREDICTED   17 JUN-19 JUN  195/190/185
90 DAY MEAN        16 JUN 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN  021/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN  015/015-020/025-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/15
MINOR STORM           15/20/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/60/20
MINOR STORM           20/25/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/01