:Product: 20000618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 170 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9033 (S25W85) PRODUCED
AN X1/SF FLARE AT 18/0159Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 300 SFU TENFLARE, A
245 MHZ RADIO BURST OF 11000 SFU, AND A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WITH A
SPEED OF 660 KM/S. A BRIGHT SURGE ON THE LIMB WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH
THIS EVENT REACHING A RADIAL EXTENT OF .21 RV, AND THE SOHO/LASCO
IMAGERY INDICATED AN ASSOCIATED CME. A 30 DEGREE FILAMENT AT N55E62
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 17/1928Z AND 18/1158Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 9052 (S29W10).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE REMAINS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. GOES GT 10 MEV PROTON
FLUXES BECAME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DURING THE EVENT MENTIONED IN PART
IA, BUT REMAINED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD AND RETURNED TO BACKGROUND
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE
CME ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JUN-21 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 JUN 188
PREDICTED   19 JUN-21 JUN  185/180/175
90 DAY MEAN        18 JUN 188
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUN  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUN-21 JUN  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 JUN-21 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01