:Product: 20000619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 171 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TODAY'S ACTIVITY CONSISTED OF A FEW, LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.
REGION 9042 (N23W11) WAS ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE SUN,
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. REGION 9046 (N21E19) IS THE
LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK (570 MILLIONTHS), BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER
ONE SUBFLARE. A FILAMENT OF ABOUT 30 DEGREES LENGTH ERUPTED FROM THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE DISK LATE ON THE 18TH. A CME WAS SUBSEQUENTLY
OBSERVED TO ENTER THE LASCO/C2 FIELD OF VIEW CLOSE TO THE NORTH
SOLAR POLE AT 18/2140Z. THE TRANSIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
EARTHBOUND.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 ARE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR
M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE
OR A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JUN 178
PREDICTED   20 JUN-22 JUN  180/180/180
90 DAY MEAN        19 JUN 187
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN  010/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05