:Product: 20000620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 172 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 9042 (N24W24)
PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C6/1N AT 1928Z WHICH WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. THE REGION APPEARED TO BE
DECLINING SLIGHTLY. REGION 9046 (N21E06) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST
GROUP ON THE DISK BUT PRODUCED ONLY A SUBFLARE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. REGION 9052 (S26E29) EXHIBITED SLOW GROWTH BUT WAS STABLE.
NEW REGION 9054 (N09E64) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SMALL C-TYPE
GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 9042 OR
9046 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JUN-23 JUN
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JUN 184
PREDICTED   21 JUN-23 JUN  185/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        20 JUN 186
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUN  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUN  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUN-23 JUN  010/012-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 JUN-23 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05