:Product: 20000621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 173 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9042 (N23W38)
PRODUCED TODAY'S ONLY M-CLASS EVENT, AN M1/SF AT 0929Z. THE REGION
PRODUCED ADDITIONAL, FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS, BUT APPEARED TO BE IN
AN OVERALL STATE OF GRADUAL DECLINE. REGION 9046 (N21W07) CONTINUES
TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS RELATIVELY STABLE.
REGIONS 9050 (S08W48) AND 9052 (S26W52) SHOWED STEADY SLOW GROWTH,
BUT WERE ALSO STABLE. NEW REGIONS 9055 (N19E70) AND 9056 (S15E68)
ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS SIMPLE H-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUPS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 CONTINUE
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 JUN 188
PREDICTED   22 JUN-24 JUN  185/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        21 JUN 186
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUN  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUN  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUN-24 JUN  010/010-010/015-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05