:Product: 20000622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 174 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 9042 (N23W54)
PRODUCED MOST OF TODAY'S C-CLASS EVENTS, INCLUDES THE LARGEST, A
C5/SF AT 0023Z. REGIONS 9040 (N18W73) AND 9046 (N20W21) ALSO
EXHIBITED SUBFLARE LEVEL BRIGHTENINGS DURING THE EVENT   REGION 9042
HAS CONTINUED TO DECAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRAILER PORTION OF THE
GROUP. REGION 9046 (N20W21) ALSO CONTRIBUTED A FEW C-CLASS EVENTS
AND HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AREA. NEW REGION 9057 (N14E72)
ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE H-TYPE REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 ARE
CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS PREDOMINATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THERE WAS ONE ACTIVE
PERIOD FROM 0000-0300Z. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
ACE SPACECRAFT INDICATED A SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING FROM AN
'AWAY' (POSITIVE) CONFIGURATION TO A 'TOWARDS' (NEGATIVE)
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN 0100-1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BUT GRADUAL INCREASE TO
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IS ANTICIPATED LATE TOMORROW OR BY THE SECOND
DAY. THE INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS A RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUN-25 JUN
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JUN 180
PREDICTED   23 JUN-25 JUN  175/175/170
90 DAY MEAN        22 JUN 186
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUN  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUN-25 JUN  012/015-015/015-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JUN-25 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10