:Product: 20000624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 176 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 9042
(N22W89) PRODUCED A C7/SF FLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT SHOWED NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS IT BEGAN TO CROSS THE WEST LIMB. REGION 9046
(N21W48) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AND PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFLARE.
MINOR GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9049 (S36W34), 9054 (N12E11),
AND 9058 (S14W29). THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AND
SIMPLY-STRUCTURED. NEW REGIONS 9060 (S34E59) AND 9061 (S14E74) WERE
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
WITH STORM LEVELS LIMITED TO THE HIGH LATITUDES. FIELD ACTIVITY
DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AFTER 24/0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING 25 - 26
JUNE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE
FINAL DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUN-27 JUN
CLASS M    30/25/25
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JUN 168
PREDICTED   25 JUN-27 JUN  160/155/155
90 DAY MEAN        24 JUN 185
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUN  020/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUN  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUN-27 JUN  020/025-020/030-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JUN-27 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01