:Product: 20000626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 178 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL,
MOSTLY LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED, MOST OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCED BY REGION 9054 (N12W18). THIS REGION IS A MEDIUM-SIZED,
MIXED-POLARITY (BETA-GAMMA) GROUP THAT HAS GRADUALLY DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE (BASED ON
SOHO/EIT IMAGES) FOR A C4 X-RAY FLARE AT 26/0157Z ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK VELOCITY 800 KM/SEC) AND A
POSSIBLE PARTIAL-HALO CME. REGIONS 9046 (N20W75) AND 9049 (N16W09)
DECAYED SLIGHTLY, WHILE THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NEW
REGION 9063 (N24E41) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES ARE EXPECTED.
REGION 9054 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS
WITH BRIEF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 27 - 28 JUNE
WITH BRIEF STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. FIELD ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE LAST
DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 JUN-29 JUN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 JUN 177
PREDICTED   27 JUN-29 JUN  170/165/165
90 DAY MEAN        26 JUN 185
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN  011/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN  020/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN  015/020-015/017-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 JUN-29 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/20
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/25
MINOR STORM           25/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/01