:Product: 20000627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 179 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO EVENTS OF NOTE
THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS A 27 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTION FROM NEAR
N44W82 AT AROUND 27/1000Z. AN IMPRESSIVE CME WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING
THE ERUPTION, BUT THE MATERIAL DOES NOT APPEAR EARTHBOUND.  REGION
9062 (S18E48) PRODUCED A C9/2N FLARE AT 27/1255Z. THIS REGION
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE. NEW REGION 9064 WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE PRODUCED LOW
LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO. AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ONE QUIET
PERIOD OBSERVED BETWEEN 27/09 - 12Z. A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON DAY TWO AND THREE, WITH
ISOLATED HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JUN-30 JUN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JUN 179
PREDICTED   28 JUN-30 JUN  165/165/170
90 DAY MEAN        27 JUN 184
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUN  022/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUN  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUN-30 JUN  015/017-012/012-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JUN-30 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    06/06/02
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/30
MINOR STORM           30/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05