:Product: 20000628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 180 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST X-RAY EVENT THIS
PERIOD WAS A C6 FLARE, OBSERVED ON EIT IMAGERY NEAR THE SW LIMB AT
28/1219Z. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED ON THE NW LIMB NEAR NORTH 20,
RESULTING IN A LARGE CME WITH TYPE II SWEEP (SHOCK SPEED 536 KM/S)
AND A RATHER LONG DURATION C3 X-RAY BURST. BRIGHT SURGING WAS
EVIDENT ON THE NW LIMB SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO THIS ERUPTION.
REMAINING REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. MOSTLY LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY WITH AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. WEAK CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS
CONTINUED TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JUN-01 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JUN 175
PREDICTED   29 JUN-01 JUL  175/175/180
90 DAY MEAN        28 JUN 184
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUN  014/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUN  008/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUN-01 JUL  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JUN-01 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05