:Product: 20000703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 185 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SUBFLARES
OCCURRED, ALL OF WHICH WERE LESS THAN C-CLASS. GROWTH IN REGION 9068
(S19E38) HAS SLOWED. ALL SUNSPOT GROUPS PRESENTLY ON THE DISK ARE
RELATIVELY SIMPLE AND INACTIVE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN A NUMBER OF REGIONS WITH
9068 BEING THE MOST LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL
HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUL 156
PREDICTED   04 JUL-06 JUL  154/152/150
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUL 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05