:Product: 20000705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 187 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. THOUGH FEW FLARES
OCCURRED, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF NEW FLUX EMERGED, AS EVIDENCED BY
FOUR NEW REGIONS THAT WERE NUMBERED. THE REGIONS ARE: 9071 (N22W23),
9072 (N15E16), 9073 (S21E44), AND 9074 (N10E64). THERE ARE 13
REGIONS ON THE DISK, WITH REGION 9070 (N17E29) THE LARGEST AND MOST
COMPLEX. THERE WAS A TYPE II SWEEP ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE FROM REGION 9068 (S19E11) AT 04/2243Z. THAT EVENT WAS
DEVOID OF ANY X-RAY ENHANCEMENT, AND DID NOT APPEAR TO SPAWN AN
EARTH-DIRECTED CME.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE FEW ACTIVE
PERIODS WERE RELATED TO HOUR-LONG INTERVALS OF SOUTHWARD
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD ORIENTATION.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EFFECTS OF
A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM ARE DUE, FROM AN EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH
CORONAL HOLE NOW LOCATED MID-WAY IN THE WESTERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUL-08 JUL
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JUL 169
PREDICTED   06 JUL-08 JUL  175/180/185
90 DAY MEAN        05 JUL 180
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL  015/015-015/020-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JUL-08 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01