:Product: 20000707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 189 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9071 (N23W48), A
SEEMINGLY SIMPLE BIPOLE, PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS, AN M1/SN WITH
TYPE II SWEEP AT 1105Z, AND AN M1/1B AT 1819Z. REGION 9070 (N18E03),
A LARGER AND MORE COMPLEX GROUP, HAD FREQUENT MID-SIZED C-CLASS
EVENTS. LASCO REPORTED A HALO CME, FIRST SEEN AT 1026Z, POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE FROM CENTER DISK. ONE NEW
REGION, NUMBERED 9077 (N18E71), CAME INTO VIEW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 9071 SHOULD CONTINUE PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. EFFECTS OF TODAY'S HALO CME ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL 11 JULY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JUL-10 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JUL 187
PREDICTED   08 JUL-10 JUL  195/200/205
90 DAY MEAN        07 JUL 180
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUL  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUL  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUL-10 JUL  010/010-010/012-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JUL-10 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01