:Product: 20000712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 194 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N17E16) PRODUCED
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FOR THE PERIOD. IT PRODUCED
AN M1/1N AT 12/0502Z WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THIS WAS
FOLLOWED BY AN X1/2B AT 12/1037Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 390 SFU TENFLARE
AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. REGION 9070 (N19W63) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT
12/1655Z. REGION 9077 PRODUCED ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE AT 12/1849Z,
AN M5/2F WITH AN ASSOCIATED 230 SFU TENFLARE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 12/2014Z. BOTH REGIONS
9070 AND 9077 MAINTAIN COMPLEX MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATIONS.  AN
IMPRESSIVE CME WAS OBSERVED AROUND 12/0200Z FROM A REGION ON OR
BEHIND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB OF THE SUN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT HIGH LEVELS. EXPECT FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 9070. REGION 9077 WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAJOR FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MINOR
STORMING WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE
SUBSIDED. MOSTLY MINOR TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS REMAIN
ENHANCED BUT HAVE NOT YET CROSSED ALERT THRESHOLD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AT QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS. MINOR TO
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON DAY ONE AS A
RESULT OF CME'S OBSERVED ON 10-11 JULY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON DAY THREE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS FLUX ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CROSS EVENT THRESHOLD DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
CLASS M    90/90/90
CLASS X    50/50/50
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 JUL 230
PREDICTED   13 JUL-15 JUL  225/220/200
90 DAY MEAN        12 JUL 183
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUL  031/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUL  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUL-15 JUL  025/025-050/050-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           25/40/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    30/40/07
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           30/40/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    40/40/10